Tag Archives: housing

How important is construction to economic growth and employment across Canada?: Part 2

In part 1 of this series we looked at construction employment as a percentage of total employment, and residential construction as a percent of GDP for all provinces from BC east to Ontario. If you haven’t read that post, make … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Measuring the potential economic impact of a housing bust

We do in fact live in unique times.  While we can disagree on exactly what the future holds for real estate in Canada and what implications (if any) this may have on the economy, we can not disagree on certain … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

What are the implications?

I’m working on a neat series looking at the historical percentage of GDP derived from residential construction in different provinces and connecting that to the change in the percentage of the workforce employed in construction over time. It might give … Continue reading

Posted in Real Estate | Tagged , , , | 16 Comments

Another look at mass psychology, asset bubbles, and the Canadian real estate market

Understanding the driver of asset bubbles Perhaps the greatest distinction between those economists who have correctly identified asset bubbles in the past and those whose economic models failed to identify them is the ability of the former group to recognize … Continue reading

Posted in Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , | 61 Comments

A regional look at Canada’s housing bubble: Part 1

Introduction I recently highlighted the fact that aggregate Canadian house prices appear to be significantly overvalued relative to GDP per capita (one of the key determinents of income….all things being equal, higher income levels should equate to higher house prices). … Continue reading

Posted in Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 41 Comments

CIBC on the housing and the Canadian Consumer; Bank of Canada speech; Other noteworthy news stories

CIBC on housing and the Canadian consumer Just a week after Scotia Economics released a report suggesting that Canadian consumers are “tapped out”, CIBC economics has released an interesting report that contains some similar themes. Some highlights: This suggests that … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Real Estate, Social trends | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 25 Comments

House prices: Examining inflation and supply/demand factors

I continue to work with some CREA data to find historic relationships between house prices and other factors.  I posted earlier on the historic correlation between house prices and per capita GDP, which shows significant overvaluation on a nation wide … Continue reading

Posted in Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 37 Comments

David Madani on CBC’s “The Lang and O’Leary exchange”

You may recall that David Madani from Capital Economics released two reports earlier this year which were exactly in line with the preditions on this blog.  In the first report, he outlined his concerns about the Canadian real estate market, focusing on … Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , | 10 Comments

House prices and per capita GDP: A sure sign of a bubble?

I’m currently working with some data to show the historic relationship between house prices in Canada and various other factors such as inflation, population growth, immigration, income, mortgage debt, rents, etc.  I’ll share the data as I complete it and … Continue reading

Posted in Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , | 22 Comments

Scotia on the ‘Tapped out’ consumer; TD on Ontario’s debt problems

The ‘tapped out’ consumer Scotia economics has reiterated a call that I’ve been sticking to all year:  The Bank of Canada will be highly hesitant to raise rates later this year…..if at all.  But for the housing bulls who frequent … Continue reading

Posted in Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments